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rutledgecapital.com

Welcome to Rutledge Capital

For 35 years, Dr. John Rutledge has traveled the world advising governments, corporations, pension funds and individual investors on how to create, grow and manage wealth.

We invite you to look around the website to read more about how Dr. Rutledge views the world, see what he thinks about today's issues, and better understand the important economic, financial and political forces that shape our lives and determine the value of our homes and stock portfolios.

Featured Posts

FYI: CNBC Closing Bell today on Alibaba

Tweet When you buy Alibaba shares you are making a number of bets simultaneously. Here are my thoughts on some of them. 1. You are betting on China. Jack Ma talked about growth prospects in US and Europe but this is a dominant Chinese company (80% market share) whose future will depend on its continued success in China. This is a good bet. China is growing slower today (7%) than some would like but it will continue to grow at rates that are multiples of US/EU/Japan growth rates. 2. You are betting on the growth of internet and e-commerce penetration in China. This is a good bet. As McKinsey has pointed out, China’s population... [Read more]

CNBC Squawk Box tomorrow (1/27) morning 8:40 AM EST

Tweet I am doing a spot on CNBC Squawk Box tomorrow morning to talk about what’s going on in China and its connection, if any, to the big Friday sell-off of global stock markets. As you will see below in the talking points I sent the producers to brief the anchors, a pretty small event in China–a modest drop in their manufacturing purchasing manager’s index–is triggering a very big reaction from investors. I have no idea how to forecast this sort of thing but I am pretty sure of a few things: 1) the developed countries are starting to grow again, 2) rising US interest rates this year are forcing investors... [Read more]

Some Thoughts for 2014

Tweet When our daughter Katie was 3 years old, she referred to the list of things you make at the beginning of every year as “New Year’s Revolutions.” One of my New Year’s revolutions for 2014 is to start writing again. In particular, there are two things on my mind. The first is practical; I believe that we are in the early stages of a change in economic direction that will rival the shift of inflation that separated the ’70s from the ’80s, only in the opposite direction. The second is more theoretical. I started my professional life as an academic economist doing all the things professors... [Read more]

CNBC FastMoney spot today on declining China growth

Tweet I did a spot today on CNBC’s FastMoney where the topic was reports of declining China growth. Here are the talking points I used to brief the anchors for the spot FYI. China is slowing somewhat this year due to -weak growth in Europe (China’s biggest trading partner and -shrinking property market (residential property prices falling in all major markets) -policy is also pushing fixed asset investment spending down, consumer spending up as a way of changing the structure of the economy over time -Western observers are making too much of the slowdown. When they do, they sell China stocks. Slowdown will be modest,... [Read more]

CNBC Kudlow tonight 7:30 EDT

Tweet FYI: I will do a spot on CNBC’s Kudlow & Company tonight at either 7:30PM Eastern time or 4:30PM Pacific time. The topic will be US/China trade. As you may have seen, the US, EU, and Japan filed a complaint today with the WTO alleging that China is restricting its exports of rare earth minerals (tungsten, molybdenum, etc.), which was quickly followed by tribal chest-thumping contest by both Obama and Romney. Wait, somebody wants China to export MORE of something? I will try to interject a little logic into this emotional topic tonight. Hope you can tune in. JR PS: Here is the link to the CNBC video of the spot.  Read More →

CGU Lecture: Far From Equilibrium Economics

Tweet Dr. John Rutledge “Tuesday Lunch Series” 2-14-12 from CGU School of Politics & Economics on Vimeo.    Read More →

Migrant Worker Schools

Tweet I did a spot on CNBC Squawk Box this morning to discuss the impact of the recent unrest in China. Much of the news surrounds stories about migrant worker protests. As I wrote yesterday, the drivers for the protests making the news is not ideology–it is practical life issues like pay, jobs, work practices, discrimination, and corrupt local government officials. Wen Jiabao recently said that corrupt officials is China’s greatest crisis. Last year more than 146,000 corrupt officials were arrested in China; 97% of them were at the county, city, or village level. Our discussion this morning turned on the impact... [Read more]

New Forbes Op-Ed. China Inflation: The Canary In the Coalmine

Tweet My friend John Tamny, who runs the Op-Ed operation at Forbes, emailed last week asking me to fire up my Forbes column again, I couldn’t be more pleased. My first column is below. Hope you enjoy. You can view it on the Forbes.com website by clicking here, or at RealClearMarkets by clicking here. China Inflation: The Canary In the Coalmine The real inflation story is here in the United States. Rising inflation in China has investors running scared, fearing that Chinese central bank tightening will end global growth. They are worrying about the wrong problem. China’s inflation problem is transitory and will... [Read more]

Op-Ed: The New Economy Can we stay ahead of China? Yes!

Tweet I wrote an op-ed for the Christian Science Monitor a few days ago on US/China relations. You can read it by clicking here. It deals with the question of when China’s GDP will exceed US GDP. My point is that the answer depends on us. Can we stay ahead of China? Yes! But it will depend on America’s political will to fix its own problems, rather than blaming them on China. I was approached by a man at the supermarket who penetrated my Southern California disguise of baggy shorts, T-shirt, and deck shoes with no socks and asked if I was me? (Yes); the one who talked about China on CNBC? (Yes); then the question... [Read more]

Common Ground Committee Forum

Tweet (June 14, 2011) Last week I had the pleasure of participating in a public forum hosted by the Common Ground Committee in Darien CT. You can watch a  video of the forum at the Common Ground Committee’s website. The thesis of the forum is to explore a controversial topic and look for common ground–areas where both sides can agree–to use as a basis for building a solution. Our topic was China: Threat or Opportunity?The forum was moderated by John Yemma, editor of the Christian Science Monitor, where I ran an op-ed on the subject ahead of the meeting. The combatants were Henry Tang, Alan Tonelson, Peter... [Read more]

CNBC Kudlow Report tonight on US/China Retail Sales Reports

Tweet I did a spot with Larry Kudlow tonight to discuss today’s retail sales reports that seems to have been a major impetus behind today’s huge stock market increase. Great to work with my old friend again. Not many know this, but Larry and I have been working together since 1976 when he was Chief Economist at Paine Webber and I was a professor at Claremont Men’s College (known as Claremont McKenna College today). The US Advance Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services Report for was down -0.2% for May (+0.3% excluding motor vehicles), and +7.7% over year ago levels (+8.2% excluding motor vehicles.)... [Read more]

CNBC Squawk Box in the Morning

Tweet (June 14, 2011) Will do an early morning spot on CNBC Squawk Box tomorrow (Wed. 6/15/11) 8:40AM Eastern time (5:40AM hit for me here in California–argh!). Hope you can dial us in. The topic will be the recent unrest in China that was the subject of the Wall Street Journal front page story today. There have been a series of public protests in recent weeks in Inner Mongolia, Lichuan, and Zengcheng, including bombs set off in Fuzhou and Tianjin a few days ago. Individually, the events are hard to connect: a Mongolian sheep herder accidentally killed by a Chinese truck driver; protests against corrupt local officials... [Read more]