Housing Crisis is Rooted in the Asset Markets, Not the GDP Accounts. That's Where We Have to Fix It

Housing Crisis is Rooted in the Asset Markets, Not the GDP Accounts. That's Where We Have to Fix It

March 1, 2008 0 Comments

Although all of the shrieking is about whether we will have a recession, i.e., a drop in GDP, the real issue is the health of the asset markets. Investors today are not able to predict the cash flow from the mortgage-backed bonds and other fixed-income securities they own. So, the fix is not to hand out $600 checks–it is to do things that improve the visibility for investors. Mortgage lenders can’t lend people money to buy a house unless there are investors who are willing to buy the mortgage after it is made. That’s where the money for the next mortgage comes from.

Here is are 2 articles showing the kind of thinking that will actually help to get the mortgage market back in business. Gov’t to Lift Fannie, Freddie Limits and Govt frees Freddie,Fannie reins despite loss. Last week the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight removed the restrictions on the amount of mortgages that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac can hold on their books. The restrictions had been put in place in 2006 in response to the companies’ multibillion-dollar “accounting lapses”, limiting their participation in the market for mortgage-backed securities. The regulators did not lift a further punitive mandate that requires Fannie and Freddie to keep reserves against losses 30 percent higher than the minimum legal requirement, but hinted they may do so soon.

This will not fix the whole problem but is a step in the right direction. And it highlights why it is so important that investors are able to trust the numbers they see on financial statements. Shoddy accounting helped create the lending problems; the restrictions imposed in 2006 helped trigger the collapse. They call these things securities for a reason. They are supposed to be secure.

Finally, this shines a bright light on how stupid members of Congress are being when they raise politically popular proposals that make securities more risky. Top of the list is the recent proposal to allow bankruptcy judges to rewrite mortgage contracts on the spot. That would both make it impossible for investors to predict the cash flow from their securities and remove the potential gain on properties that are obtained during foreclosure, which you can think of as either downside protection or a real option, which makes the security more valuable. The bankruptcy proposal would further reduce the value of mortgage securities and dry up the already-slim supply of mortgage funds to home owners.

JR

John Rutledge

0 Comments

  1. Sean Remington

    March 2, 2008

    Ditto on the ignorancy of Congress.

  2. David Heinrich

    March 4, 2008

    Your dead on, the question is the gov going to act soon enough. Back the new paper and new mtg programs, don't bail out the banks or the mortgagees. I would like to suggest a low fixed simple interest mtg line of credit. This would incourage the principle reduction at a far more rapid pace without the fear of increased rate adjustments. It would also provide easy access to cash in case of emergencies. Think about it. It would incourage money that has been sitting in these money markets to be placed in a far better place, our homes. Remember as a simple interest loan as we make make pmts towards principle, our pmts deacrease. It maybe the solution we are looking for.
    David

    David,
    you sound like a man after my own heart. I hate having debts, and when I do I pay them off as soon as possible. Thanks for writing.
    John

  3. Bret Carpenter

    March 6, 2008

    Dr. Rutledge there is a need for more dialogue with regards to protectionism. The Dems could really hurt the economy with that e-brake and our party has demonstrated more leadership historically beginning with our founder Abraham Lincoln. The Reagan administration really seemed to know whats what in their day. It appears to be such a slippery road and I can’t believe my ears when I hear candidates spouting off on the topic with words without knowledge.
    Bret

    Bret,
    I agree. Protectionism and tax increases are the two biggest risks we face. The scary thing is that our current economic and asset market problems are happening for reasons of their own and people haven't even focused on what would happen if we heap growth-killing policy on top of the bond market meltdown.
    John


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