• I will do a spot on @cnbc @cnbcfastmoney tomorrow (Fri) 12-12:30PM Eastern time about Geithner's (our financial Doogie Howser) trip to China #
  • Geithner talk China into increase in RMB? forgetaboutit! #
  • GDP in Q1 +2.2%, down from 3% in Q4. Kissing your sister growth rate http://t.co/0UJ7Cz1S #
  • Q1 GDP +2.2% but final s ales only 1.6%, dispos pers income +0.4% Not good. (And big tax rate incr coming in Jan!) http://t.co/JbDKm4rL #
  • Q1 GDP +2.2% but .68% of it was autos, otherwise would have been 1.5%. #
  • Q1 GDP +2.2%. Govt spending added -0.6%; private GDP was 2.8%, a lot better. Wait til automatic spending cuts kick in next Jan! #
  • Dodd-Frank was small bank prevention act! Small Banks in Bailout Pool Under Pressure @CNBCtopStories #Banking #Business #SmallBusiness #
  • The problem in Europe is not the financial crisis, it is the public sector unions and the labor markets. 22% youth unemployment rate! #
  • German unemployment 'only' 5.7%; France 10%. It's the welfare state. #
  • States with 0% income tax 58% more pop growth than nat'l ave. Great article from friends Art Laffer, Steve Moore. http://t.co/dTcLCCRd #
  • US, Ger can still fix debt problem. Italy, Spain, too late. http://t.co/xPNRnGmH http://t.co/FiaSjJeO #
  • Germany cut corporate tax rate from 45% to 15% in 1998. We need to do the same. #
  • March dur goods orders -4.2%, -1.1% excl transportation. Initial claims today 388K, growth positive but still slow. Don't hold your breath. #
  • Socialist Hollande leading Sarkozy by 6-12% for 2nd round Pres election May 6. Will push french policy even further to left, weaken Euro. #
  • Probability Sarkozy will be President in 1 month < 20%. #
  • http://t.co/yIEGikiL #
  • OK, this is just a cool article. Evolutionary Trade-Offs, Pareto Optimality, and the Geometry of Phenotype Space http://t.co/2SEiOdA8 #
  • Really? No Signs of Contagion in Europe: Expert @CNBCtopStories #AsiaSquawkBox #
  • 40% of Californians don't pay any income tax and a quarter are on Medicaid http://t.co/pX7NdgSR #
  • Nearly 4 million more people left Cal. past 2 decades than came from other states. http://t.co/pX7NdgSR #
  • In Cal. middle-class workers earning > $48,000 pay 9.3% tax rate, higher than millionaires in 47 states. And rate increase on Nov ballot! #
  • According to the Tax Foundation, California has the 48th-worst business tax climate. http://t.co/pX7NdgSR #
  • Will be on @cnbc @cnbcsquawkbox 8AM Eastern tomorrow morning. Topic is China GDP number out tonight (will likely be a little over 8%) #

Hey wait a minute–that’s 5AM here in California! I get to wake up in the dark again.

We will discuss the China GDP number that will come out tonight. Here is an outline of the talking points I will use for the spot.
-I expect tonight’s number will be a little over 8%
-China is slowing but not dramatically (8-8.5% GDP growth this year.)
-Policy is easing in China but gradually. The reserve requirement cuts are not monetary easing; the PBOC uses the tool to manage speculative flows. When currency speculators increase their bets that the RMB will rise against the dollar, the money flows into the banks so the PBOC raises reserve requirements to effectively “sterilize it”, i.e., to keep it from showing up as increases in credit. In recent months speculative inflows have stopped, which is why reserve requirements are coming downnow. Means nothing about monetary policy. For easing measures, expect a rate cut, administrative procedures easing, easing mortgage rules.
-Western observers periodically worry too much about a China hard landing, driving copper and other commodity prices down. Those prices are correcting back to a view that China is still growing.
-That’s why I own FCX, RIO, BHP, PTR, CAT in my portfolio.

JR

  • If it's bad enough you must measure your fire wall it's not tall enough "Measuring the Euro-Zone's Crisis Firewall" http://t.co/PE7C6H3A #
  • SocSec/Medicare are bust. IMF warns US govt underestimates lifespan by 3 yrs, pension cost $7T more than est. http://t.co/iwweFB6n #
  • Here are slides I used for a recent lecture on understanding financial crises at Claremont Graduate University http://t.co/ATrkSjxC #
  • friend Tom Hazlett has a great piece in Barrons re shift of wireless competition from carriers to Apple/Rim etc http://t.co/IaM8BdJk #
  • In wireless, ave price per voice minute 20 cents in 2000 , 4 cents in 2010. Adj for inflation, 84% drop! Networks spent $20-$25B/yr capex #
  • Sprint will now offer iPhone. To land sale, they committed to buy 30.5M units by 2015 ($15B gross profit to Apple, Sprint mkt cap just $8B. #
  • Confirms my view MSFT should be analyzed as a utility with govt monopoly. Microsoft Buys 800 AOL Patents for $1 Billion http://t.co/9Ig9SXp0 #
  • Brother Tom (#2 guitar player I know; dad was #1 sent this Stanley Jordan vid. Dad would want you to watch it. http://t.co/bqnR2HD8 #
  • Monetization? Fed bought 2/3 of Treas debt issued 2011, more than priv & for inv together http://t.co/qjvoPxWL #
  • Treas bonds riskiest game in the house today. Compare 10 year yield 2.22% with div yields BX 5.7%, RIO 2.7%, BHP 3.1%, FCX 3.3%, PTR 3.8% #
  • Anyone who makes 10 yr loans to the Spanish government at 5.31% yield is nuts! JR @cnbcfastmoney @cnbc #
  • Spain is next to go–youth unemployment rose to 50.5% in February. #
  • Idiots! a bill before India parliament would govt go back 50 years to tax sale of Indian assets even if seller & buyer both outside India. #