China CPI – February 2010 (The charts below are courtesy of Andy Rothman at CLSA. Andy is by far the most knowledgeable person I know on Chinese inflation issues.) The worry that rising inflation in China will provoke the government to tighten sharply, which would slow growth and push commodity prices lower is unfounded. China’s February CPI was up +2.7% from a year earlier after showing deflation for most of 2009. As the chart below shows, however, it’s all food prices. 2.06% of the 2.7% headline number came from food. Another .44% came from residence expenses, which were pushed up by a one-time increase in utility costs last year. Other goods and services accounted for only 0.2% of the 2.7% increase–about one-fourteenth... [Read more]
The vote is scheduled for Sunday, when most people are not watching the news–I wonder why? This weekend, House Speaker Pelosi is going to try to end-run the Constitution to pass the largest piece of legislation ever enacted–multi-trillion dollar healthcare reform–without a vote. My friend and constitutional law and health care scholar Betsy McCaughey has written two books on the Constitution. Betsy says the Pelosi gambit won’t survive a constitutional challenge in the Supreme Court. You can read Betsy McCaughey’s analysis by clicking here. A number of House Democrats do not want to go on record as having voted for the controversial and unpopular health care bill so Pelosi has crafted a way they can vote... [Read more]
The Consumer Price Index for January 1020 was released today. On the surface, it showed momdest inflation of 2.1% over the past 12 months, as the table below shows. Beneath the surface, in its components, the CPI shows that the real situation is very different. There is a 45.2% difference between the highest annual inflation figure (36.8% for gasoline) and the lowest figure (-8.4% for gas utility costs). Five of the figures are above 10%. Six of them are below zero. The job of the Fed is price stability–to keep prices stable so people will be able to predict their revenues and expenses and make long-term decisions. No rational person could look at these figures and make any long-term decision. This is important to keep ttrack... [Read more]
I recently sat down with Wallace Forbes to discuss investing in China and other emerging markets—the interview is now up on Forbes.com. The text of the article follows below: Using ETFs To Play China Wallace Forbes 03.01.10, 5:00 PM ET John Rutledge, founder and chairman of Rutledge Capital, discusses with Wallace Forbes investments in China and other emerging markets. Rutledge: Needless to say, this is a tricky time for people trying to forecast the economy since there are so many policy changes in the wind. I think what we’ve got to realize is that last year, 2009, was really dominated by an undervalued or broken market that came back to life. In March 2009 we had the opportunity to buy a dollar of equities for 50 cents,... [Read more]
The Reid Bill ($15B) is better than either the December House bill ($154B) or the Baucus/Grassley Senate Finance bill ($85B) simply because it has a smaller price tag. But, like the other bills, it will have very little impact on jobs. The central piece of the bill is the temporary payroll tax cut (employer portion 6.2% of the 12.4% payroll tax) for the rest of 2010 if a company hires a person who signs a statement they have been unemployed for at least 60 days, with a $1000 bonus if the worker is still hired at end of one year. The 60 day unemployed requirement is both troubling and counterproductive. It creates tremendous incentives for fraud and abuse. It will force the government to create an enforcement mechanism, potentially going after... [Read more]
Fed discount rate yesterday not a big policy event and good to do. It is part of their sweeping up exercise, trying to encourage banks to repay some of the $1 trillion (1100%) increase in bank reserves they added to banking system during crisis a year ago. You can read the Fed’s press release here. Worth noting–the quarter point increase, times today’s reserve base, will reduce bank earnings by about $3 billion over 12 months. It is imperative that the Fed extracts those additional l reserves this year before they show up as inflation down the road. Left as is, the reserve increase is more than enough to than double the US price level. What they are trying to do is a little like putting a genie back in a bottle. I don’t... [Read more]
You have to see this. My friend Mark Swenson, Arizona Deputy Treasurer, has shown me their new website. Arizona State Treasurer, Dean Martin, has put Arizona’s financial system online for all to see. Dean’s purpose was to provide Arizona taxpayers with a searchable, user-friendly website that discloses all revenues and expenditures for Arizona State government. The site has daily cash balances the the entire state government (the figure above is from today’s front page) plus detailed information on all outlays and revenue sources as you can see below. It is the most transparent government site of any kind I have ever seen. Now all we need is to get Washington to do the same. And Mr. Geithner, if you are going to say we can’t... [Read more]
Whether China will continue to own/buy our bonds or not is a story that shows up in the media every few months. It makes good copy but most of the people who write about it have little direct knowledge of the situation. Bottom line: China is not going to stop buying U.S. securities but they have become our biggest creditor–too big to ignore what they are thinking. I have spoken with the Chinese leaders personally about this issue in recent months. They are concerned that the U.S. government is spending too much money, that our budget deficits are too big, that our debt is growing too fast, and especially that the Fed has printed so much money in the last year we will have significant inflation in the future. A Chinese Vice Premier, asked... [Read more]
New reports from S&P and Moody’s indicate housing crisis has 3 more years to run, that Obama’s HAMP loan modification program has been a flop and will drive down home prices by 8% this year, and that 70% of the modified loans will re-default. This is one more reason why we need pro-growth policies–not phony stimulus spending plans–now. The “shadow inventory” of bank-repossessed properties, as well as distressed mortgages facing foreclosure, will take nearly three years to clear at the current sales rate, according to a report from the credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s (S&P). The “shadow inventory” of homes includes all delinquent loans and real-estate owned (REO) property that has not reached... [Read more]
No, the U.S. should not bail out Greece or the other PIGS that are being punished by the bond market. It doesn’t pass the grown man test. After two years of picking taxpayers’ pockets to solve one crisis after another, we have to draw the line somewhere–lets get started now. Greece’s financial crisis is a self-inflicted wound. Their government simply spent them into the poorhouse while Greek voters cheered them on. They need to learn from their mistakes so they don’t keep spending in the future. And the banks and other investors who loaned them money knew they were taking a risk. No Way should the U.S. taxpayers pay the price. If Greece defaults on its debt the world will not end; adult investors will just lose... [Read more]
I hope you read Mary O’Grady’s great piece in today’s Wall Street Journal Argentina Seizes the Central Bank. When you read it, think of the parallels with recent events in the U.S. I bet you feel a chill up your spine just like I did. Argentina’s nut-job President, Cristina Kirchner (wife of former president Nestor Kirchner) decided she didn’t want to use the tax money in the treasury to pay foreign debts but would simply seize the reserves of the banking system for the purpose. Martin Redrado, President of the central bank, refused to hand over the keys so she fired him last week. In his place, she appointed Mercedes Marco, a young Yale-trained economist, who thinks the idea that central banks should be independent... [Read more]
