Dr. John Rutledge Blog http://rutledgecapital.com/rutledgeblog John Rutledge on Technology, Policy, Economics, Investing, and Business Fri, 26 Dec 2008 07:59:59 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.7 en hourly 1 © jr@rutledgecapital.com () jr@rutledgecapital.com() Dr. John Rutledge on Technology, Policy, Economics, Investing, and Business jr@rutledgecapital.com No no http://rutledgecapital.com/rutledgeblog/wp-content/plugins/podpress/images/powered_by_podpress.jpg Dr. John Rutledge Blog http://rutledgecapital.com/rutledgeblog 144 144 Twitter Posts on 2008-12-25 http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/rutledgecapital/xSWa/~3/495417053/ http://rutledgecapital.com/rutledgeblog/2008/12/25/twitter-posts-on-2008-12-25/#comments Fri, 26 Dec 2008 07:59:59 +0000 John Rutledge http://rutledgecapital.com/rutledgeblog/2008/12/25/twitter-posts-on-2008-12-25/
  • @mesimos Thank you very much for your note. Bud was a good friend.
    John #
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  • Loyal 12 year old german shepherd Buddy died tonight, peacefully, in the arms of daughters and son home for Christmas. He was a good friend. #
  • @shawnaiona Thanks. I have an ipod touch and love it but it has been superceded by 3G iphone, which I love except for the slow speed. #
  • Harbinger’s Biggest Hedge Fund Will Limit Client Withdrawals to 60% to 70%. Harbinger? So THAT’s why they picked that name. #
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  • Doing a spot on Neil Cavuto re hedge funds tonight 6PM EST. #
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  • 344 funds closed during third quarter, topping the previous record of 267 set in the fourth quarter of 2006. This asset class is going away. #
  • 2008 is on pace for more than 920 hedge fund liquidations, exceeding the 2005 record of 848, surpassing last year’s total of 563. #
  • White House said today it is considering an “orderly” bankruptcy as it weighs aid for U.S. automakers. Would leave companies much stronger. #
  • Fox Business Network sues treasury dept. for failure to respond to info requests on use of bailout funds for AIG, BONY, Citigroup. YES! #
  • “I’ve abandoned free-market principles to save the free-market system,” President Bush told CNN. This shows why we are in such a mess. #
  • Getty endowment drops by 25 percent. Endowments about to make second mistake, selling private equity to rebalance to allocation targets #
  • Apple Could Get a Boost From iPhone’s Introduction to China. This company is a huge steam roller. I own the stock. #
  • Apple makes $206 profit from each 3G iPhone sold. They recognize 1/24th of subsidy they receive from AT&T each month (2 yr contract). #
  • Walkaways highest in ‘non-recourse’ states. (DUH!) #
  • Obama’s plan to nominate former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk to be U.S. trade representative is a worry for organized labor. (Excellent!) #
  • @danibabb I’m doing MY part in pushing APPL stock price up by buying i-everythings for Xmas presents. Go America, buy ipods & iphones. #
  • @jesrutledge Here we go again. #
  • Mugabe insists ‘Zimbabwe is mine’. - When I met this man 30 years ago my gut reaction was “this is a legitimate asshole.” He still is. #
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  • Investors have pulled $211 billion out of Russia since August. It’s currency reserves have fallen $161 billion, or 27% percent. #
  • Nov. Russia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 39.8, below Sept ‘98, when Russia defaulted on $40B debt and devalued ruble. #
  • great article on Russian financial crisis. http://tinyurl.com/4u9gw4 #
  • S&P 500 Q3 operating profits 46% higher than net income due to huge write-downs. Look at P/OP, not P/E to look for undervalued stocks. #
  • Yale University’s endowment lost 25%, or $5.5 billion, since June. Huge drop in univ. and charity endowment grants coming in 2009. #
  • UN says 8.7 mln North Koreans need food aid. I will make trip to Pyongyang in January to visit leaders, talk at univ., start school project. #
  • BREAKING NEWS: Caroline Kennedy today announced her interest in receiving Nobel Prize in Chemistry, Pulitzer Prize, French Croix de Guerre. #
  • Daughter Jes writes that US has done in 3 mos what took Japan 3 yrs: reserves up 7x, base money 2x. http://twitter.com/jesrutledge #
  • Also from Jes, data on Japanese housing prices before & after their bubble http://www.boj.or.jp/en/type/press/koen07/data/ko0709a.pdf #
  • @decidedlyright Whoops, you’re right. I will back off. Maybe we can get the nephew from the Palm Beach trial to run for Ted’s seat now too. #
  • @JoshFriedlander Not for a while. Still lots of frozen redemptions. Have visited pension funds and ins cos taking their allocation to zero. #
  • @SE_blog Right. Only way green cars will save Detroit is as a political bribe to get Pelosi and Reid to cough up the $$$$$. #
  • Motorola to freeze pension plans. Going to be a lot of these. I saw a state pension plan today that is only 40% funded. #
  • Asian Hedge Funds Step in as Global Players Flee. Investors who think they can eat out of the other dog’s bowl always lose money. #
  • Current account deficit falls to $174.1B in 3Q. This is caused by the drop in imports caused by US consumers slamming their wallets shut. #
  • Australian co. Centro’s $9B US shopping center buying spree has forced a deal with banks to delay bankruptcy as it tries to sell assets. #
  • Jes tells me there is a new name for the auto bailouts–Grand Theft Auto. #
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  • In A First, Pfizer Doesn’t Raise Dividend. If this stock falls I will buy more of it. Dividend yield at today’s payout is 7.7%. #
  • China November consumer inflation eases to 2.4%. Important-inflation in China’s history is associated with social and political instability. #
  • Pfizer has $26 billion cash ($3.88/share), stock today $16.70/share, less cash = $12.82/share for business, just over 5x 2009 earnings. #
  • Bush administration assures Detroit automakers. THAT’s going to make them feel all better, I’m sure. #
  • “Monopoly Power, Futures Market Manipulation, and the Oil Price Bubble” says monopolist can raise prices! wow http://www.bepress.com/jafio” #
  • Modern Portfolio Theory, CAPM, and Black-Scholes Theorem ALL derived from equilibrium conditions, none true in nonequilibrium situations. #
  • Cody http://tinyurl.com/6p39lv #
  • Last post is a terrific piece by my friend Cody Willard on political influence peddling. Who gets most bank $? Kerry, Schumer, HRC, Lieb. #
  • Quote of the Day “If it was a size 10, I don’t think it was that dangerous.” (Ex-WH CoS Andy Card, on the shoes thrown at Pres. Bush.) #
  • Received email pitch today from man in Dubai to sell me a used hydraulic crane. Talk about global economy! (Dubai real estate market died) #
  • November Industrial production -0.6%. Manufacturing -1.4%. Autos -2.6%. Capacity utilization fell to 75.4%, 5.6% below 1972-2007 ave. #
  • Tremont’s Rye Unit Invested Entire $3.1 Billion of Assets With Madoff Firm. This guy must have been one hell of a salesman!!! #
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  • Bulgaria’s GDP +6.8% in Q3. Now THAT will pull the global economy out of recession for sure. #
  • Net private capital flows to developing countries projected to decline to $530B in 2009, from $1000B in 2007. (The Hindu Business Daily) #
  • SC automotive plant to close, jobs go to Va. Fundamental fact of today’s universe-it is much easier and cheaper to move capital than people. #
  • Sector Snap: Jewelers decline in trading. Really? You mean people don’t buy trinkets when they are scared to death and hoarding cash? hmmm. #
  • Caroline Kennedy to seek Clinton’s Senate seat. NOOOOOOO!!!!! #
  • NYC court places limits on Patriot Act. YES! Does this mean that paranoia is beginning to subside? #
  • @jesrutledge Very cool. #
  • “la nature que nous interrogeons, c’est une urne.” Final sentence of Keynes Treatise on Probability (1920). #
  • Crain’s New York Poll: Cuomo or Kennedy for Clinton’s Senate seat? Hmmm, a dickhead or an idiot. Uh, I’ll take an empty chair thanks. #
  • Hawaii hotel occupancy falls 6.5 percent in Oct. Vacation? There ain’t gonna be no stinking vacations this year. #
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  • A Single Gene Causes Both Male Sterility and Segregation Distortion in Drosophila Hybrids, Science current issue. Shades of Seymour Benzer. #
  • My friend Brett Swanson on entrepreneurs. http://tinyurl.com/6z6bt9 #
  • All world output in 1992 was $20.4 trillion, about the size of today’s output from U.S., Japan and Germany. #
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  • Senate Fails Detroit–rejected $14 billion auto rescue plan, leaving GM on brink of bankruptcy. (Title should read Senate defends taxpayers) #
  • Wholesale prices drop 2.2 percent in November. At the Sept. 16 FOMC meeting Fed governors were wringing their hands about inflation risk! #
  • EU leaders back $267B economy stimulus. Chump change! In America we don’t do retail. When we squander taxpayer money we only do trillions. #
  • Auto deaths down 10 percent so far this year. That’s because a car is very safe when gas prices are so high it is sitting in your driveway. #
  • Yesterday’s initial claims was 573,000, up 58,000 from the previous week. That’s a huge number, reflects cash hoarding. #
  • US GDP growth will be negative for 2008; China 8-9% for the year. #
  • Between 1952 and 2007, US nominal GDP grew by a factor of 39 times, total credit market debt outstanding 101 times. #
  • Net worth of households has dropped 11.1% from the peak in 2007:Q3 to 2008:Q3. #
  • Forrester projected 1.6% growth in IT spending for 2009. Bankrupt IT customers are selling new equip at auction. Death by EBay. #
  • 2008, Poland GDP up 6.1%, but erratic, 6.1% in Q1, 5.8% in Q2, 4.8% in Q3. Looks like 1-4% in 2009. Not so bad. #
  • In New York, prescriptions for anti-anxiety and anti-depressant drugs +9% in Sept, +5% more in Oct. I own Pfizer (PFE) and Forest Labs (FRX) #
  • Just received an invitation to the “Distressed Investing and Turnaround Conference Gala. It’s in Palm Beach, of course. Irony or bad taste? #
  • Administration Suggests TARP Is On Table For Big Three. Jeesh, here we go again. #
  • NYSE says it may have to de-list Nortel unless it gets its share price above $1 min. #
  • Penetration of high-definition television in the U.S. has almost doubled in a year and now is in 23.2% of all households. #
  • Nevada Governor-No raises for state workers. RAISES? What planet is HE living on? #
  • Home-price slide approaches $4.5 trillion–plus another $8T in equities. This is a capital market event that has infected GDP, not reverse #
  • Brazil GDP +6.8% during Q3. #
  • Indonesia has some of world’s largest deposits of coal, copper, tin, nickel and gold-good way to bet on China and India growth. #
  • GM slashing Q1/09 North American production by 60 percent compared with Q1/08. It won’t solve their cash problem (Can you say “job bank?”) #
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  • Just boarded Virgin America flight JFK to SFO. Beautiful cabin, terrific crew attitude. I’m sold. #
  • Strange to have a whole day with no TV hits. Tomorrow tape Forbes on Fox to air Saturday morning at usual time. #
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